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Eclipse: A la sombra del dominio económico chino

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Año 2021: el presidente estadounidense visita el Fondo Monetario Internacional para solicitar fondos de rescate a China, la primera potencia económica del planeta, que a cambio exige a Estados Unidos la retirada de sus bases navales en el Pacífico. Con esta escena sin duda profética arranca Eclipse, una obra que parte de la idea, sólidamente argumentada por el profesor Arv Año 2021: el presidente estadounidense visita el Fondo Monetario Internacional para solicitar fondos de rescate a China, la primera potencia económica del planeta, que a cambio exige a Estados Unidos la retirada de sus bases navales en el Pacífico. Con esta escena sin duda profética arranca Eclipse, una obra que parte de la idea, sólidamente argumentada por el profesor Arvind Subramanian, de que la anunciada supremacía económica de China ya está aquí, y de que Estados Unidos, el autoproclamado líder del mundo occidental, muestra todos los síntomas de decadencia —crecimiento lento, parálisis política, debilidad fiscal, y una clase media que pierde capacidad adquisitiva a marchas forzadas— que en otras épocas mostraron imperios como el británico antes de su definitivo declive. Con todos los datos en la mano, Subramanian formula un pronóstico: que cuando la economía china termine de desplegar sus alas, su dominio llegará mucho más allá de lo que jamás ha llegado el de Estados Unidos, y llevará al país oriental a convertirse en una gran potencia mundial, no sólo mayor que su predecesora, sino la más importante que haya existido nunca.


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Año 2021: el presidente estadounidense visita el Fondo Monetario Internacional para solicitar fondos de rescate a China, la primera potencia económica del planeta, que a cambio exige a Estados Unidos la retirada de sus bases navales en el Pacífico. Con esta escena sin duda profética arranca Eclipse, una obra que parte de la idea, sólidamente argumentada por el profesor Arv Año 2021: el presidente estadounidense visita el Fondo Monetario Internacional para solicitar fondos de rescate a China, la primera potencia económica del planeta, que a cambio exige a Estados Unidos la retirada de sus bases navales en el Pacífico. Con esta escena sin duda profética arranca Eclipse, una obra que parte de la idea, sólidamente argumentada por el profesor Arvind Subramanian, de que la anunciada supremacía económica de China ya está aquí, y de que Estados Unidos, el autoproclamado líder del mundo occidental, muestra todos los síntomas de decadencia —crecimiento lento, parálisis política, debilidad fiscal, y una clase media que pierde capacidad adquisitiva a marchas forzadas— que en otras épocas mostraron imperios como el británico antes de su definitivo declive. Con todos los datos en la mano, Subramanian formula un pronóstico: que cuando la economía china termine de desplegar sus alas, su dominio llegará mucho más allá de lo que jamás ha llegado el de Estados Unidos, y llevará al país oriental a convertirse en una gran potencia mundial, no sólo mayor que su predecesora, sino la más importante que haya existido nunca.

30 review for Eclipse: A la sombra del dominio económico chino

  1. 4 out of 5

    Adrian

    Eclipse, despite it's rather sensationalist title, and sensationalist opening, is very much an academic piece of work. The hypothetical introduction, wherein a new US President goes running cap in hand for an emergency loan from a Chinese appointed IMF Director, is really a prelude to what the book is primarily a study of, namely how a country achieves monetary dominance. In this respect, the book does not so much read like Michael Crichton's Rising Sun, rather it reads more closely like a work b Eclipse, despite it's rather sensationalist title, and sensationalist opening, is very much an academic piece of work. The hypothetical introduction, wherein a new US President goes running cap in hand for an emergency loan from a Chinese appointed IMF Director, is really a prelude to what the book is primarily a study of, namely how a country achieves monetary dominance. In this respect, the book does not so much read like Michael Crichton's Rising Sun, rather it reads more closely like a work by Barry Eichengreen or Paul Krugman (who are both frequently referenced). Having previously studied monitary policy, such as the transfer from Pax Britannica to Pax Americana, and the subsequent end of Bretton Woods in 1971, Subramanian does provide an interesting new light to look at the ups and downs of Dollar Dominance, and where it is going. The most crucial chapters, the ones requiring further revision, are the latter chapters detailing how a country is able to achieve reserve currency status, and what are the pros and cons of doing so. In this respect, this book is a very informative and readable work for those who wish to understand monetarism, rather than just another book on China's rise. On the whole, a very academic book, who's only flaw is perhaps that it reads like a PhD Dissertation that wasn't properly converted into book format, but that is not to detract from it's outstanding merit, namely being a very effective study of Monetarism more than anything else.

  2. 4 out of 5

    Tobias

    An interesting but ultimately unsatisfying thought experiment in how China could unseat the US as the world's dominant economic superpower. Two objections (among many). First, Subramanian bases much of his argument on comparing the transition from the UK to the US to the transition from the US to China. I'm not the most fervent "quant," but even I know that extrapolating from a single data point is hugely problematic. Paired comparison is problematic as well, since it is easy to think of numerou An interesting but ultimately unsatisfying thought experiment in how China could unseat the US as the world's dominant economic superpower. Two objections (among many). First, Subramanian bases much of his argument on comparing the transition from the UK to the US to the transition from the US to China. I'm not the most fervent "quant," but even I know that extrapolating from a single data point is hugely problematic. Paired comparison is problematic as well, since it is easy to think of numerous factors that can confound comparison between the two. This leads me to my second point, which is that Subramanian mentions but does not adequately explore the domestic and international political obstacles facing Chinese economic primacy. Does anyone doubt that if forced to choose between retaining power and promoting economic openness, the Chinese Communist Party will choose the former every time? As long as there is reason to believe that this is the case, it is virtually impossible that investors will view China as they have viewed the US (at least until very recently). This is not grounds for complacency on the part of the US - China's global economic role is still growing - but I think it's a huge question whether investors and governments will accept an authoritarian economic hegemon, one that Subramanian fails to address adequately.

  3. 4 out of 5

    Becca

    Thanks to goodreads and the publisher for this First Reads giveaway! I don't think I'm actually qualified to review this book. Honestly, I feel bad for having entered the giveaway for it because somebody else could have appreciated it more. I didn't realize it was going to be so technical. I think perhaps an effort was made to make it accessible to a wide audience, but it was too complicated for me. Thanks to goodreads and the publisher for this First Reads giveaway! I don't think I'm actually qualified to review this book. Honestly, I feel bad for having entered the giveaway for it because somebody else could have appreciated it more. I didn't realize it was going to be so technical. I think perhaps an effort was made to make it accessible to a wide audience, but it was too complicated for me.

  4. 5 out of 5

    Gort

    Dolorem id non omnis cupiditate eaque necessitatibus quis. Possimus molestias minus beatae nemo dicta odio veniam. Nostrum sint cum a eos.

  5. 4 out of 5

    Frank Kelly

    China's seemingly never ceasing growth trajectory continues to daze most observers. The question now no longer seems to be can China become the leading economy in the world but simply how soon. Arvind Subramanian starkly makes the point it will be sooner than just about anyone thinks. The economic policies and national objectives Beijing sets (and constantly meets)coupled with the controlled growth trends gets China there. But Subramanian argues there are also enormous challenges for China to ove China's seemingly never ceasing growth trajectory continues to daze most observers. The question now no longer seems to be can China become the leading economy in the world but simply how soon. Arvind Subramanian starkly makes the point it will be sooner than just about anyone thinks. The economic policies and national objectives Beijing sets (and constantly meets)coupled with the controlled growth trends gets China there. But Subramanian argues there are also enormous challenges for China to overcome to finally gain global economic dominance. As he says, it may be more China's to gain than the US to lose, comparing the current China vs. US situation to the post-World War II United States to the waning British Empire. A great resource book and a must read for anyone engaged in studying the future of China just as much as for anyone focused on the near crushing challenges to the United States today.

  6. 4 out of 5

    Iván Braga

    La potencial dominación económica futura de China, es un tema recurrente en estos últimos años. Este libro lo aborda con un sólido análisis económico e histórico. El autor revisa las tendencias de los últimos años y compara la situación actual de USA y China, con otros cambios de predominio económico, por ejemplo el reemplazo del dominio británico por el americano. Adicionalmente ajusta las proyecciones al 2030 y crea indicadores compuestos que consideran los distintos aspectos que influyen en d La potencial dominación económica futura de China, es un tema recurrente en estos últimos años. Este libro lo aborda con un sólido análisis económico e histórico. El autor revisa las tendencias de los últimos años y compara la situación actual de USA y China, con otros cambios de predominio económico, por ejemplo el reemplazo del dominio británico por el americano. Adicionalmente ajusta las proyecciones al 2030 y crea indicadores compuestos que consideran los distintos aspectos que influyen en determinar la supremacía. Si bien el análisis incluye distintos escenarios que generan diferentes respuestas a la pregunta central del libro, el autor termina mostrando la inevitabilidad que el peso demográfico de China parece tener en la definición de la supremacía económica en las próximas décadas.

  7. 4 out of 5

    Dyanna

    Subramanian's index is an interesting thought exercise, but that's about it. His model predicts based on historical data that Chinese dominance is inevitable, and we all know by now that past data are not the best predictors of future outcomes in markets. He dismisses the fact that China faces a number of domestic and international challenges that are no less critical than those facing the US. He also acts as though the US and China are the only players that matter. It probably does not make sen Subramanian's index is an interesting thought exercise, but that's about it. His model predicts based on historical data that Chinese dominance is inevitable, and we all know by now that past data are not the best predictors of future outcomes in markets. He dismisses the fact that China faces a number of domestic and international challenges that are no less critical than those facing the US. He also acts as though the US and China are the only players that matter. It probably does not make sense to ignore LatAm, India, EU, etc.

  8. 5 out of 5

    David Wen

    In depth study of current economic trends as it applies to China's economy. More geared towards a college economics class than a casual read but there's plenty of interesting information and projections regarding future forecasts. In depth study of current economic trends as it applies to China's economy. More geared towards a college economics class than a casual read but there's plenty of interesting information and projections regarding future forecasts.

  9. 4 out of 5

    Angela

    Great reference especially since charts and graphs are shown to let you really compare the things visually.

  10. 5 out of 5

    Gaurav Dewan

    Arvind started with the intention of writing a research paper but when he found that it has become too voluminous, he converted it into a book. This book is one heavy dose of economics.

  11. 4 out of 5

    justin

  12. 5 out of 5

    Mauricio Santoro

  13. 5 out of 5

    Nick

  14. 4 out of 5

    J

  15. 4 out of 5

    Alex Melton

  16. 5 out of 5

    Fritz Bachmair

  17. 4 out of 5

    Edwin

  18. 4 out of 5

    Benjamin Sadlek

  19. 5 out of 5

    SM

  20. 4 out of 5

    Carl Mister

  21. 4 out of 5

    Gayle

  22. 4 out of 5

    Allison

  23. 5 out of 5

    Middlethought

  24. 5 out of 5

    cesar velasquez

  25. 5 out of 5

    Antoni Yanev

  26. 5 out of 5

    Art Craig

  27. 4 out of 5

    Joshua

  28. 5 out of 5

    Anunay Sahay

  29. 4 out of 5

    Ceci Barradas

  30. 5 out of 5

    Todd Moss

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