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Big Shifts Ahead: Demographic Clarity For Business

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Huge Demographic Shifts Explained and Quantified for Decision Makers Demographics determine the direction of your business. Demographic trends can be overwhelming, misleading, confusing, conflicting, and difficult to predict. Not anymore. John Burns and Chris Porter wrote this book to help make demographic trends easier to understand, quantify, and anticipate. Readers of Huge Demographic Shifts Explained and Quantified for Decision Makers Demographics determine the direction of your business. Demographic trends can be overwhelming, misleading, confusing, conflicting, and difficult to predict. Not anymore. John Burns and Chris Porter wrote this book to help make demographic trends easier to understand, quantify, and anticipate. Readers of this book will have a huge competitive advantage because they will be making decisions with facts, and they will be better able to adjust their strategies when unanticipated events shift prevailing trends. Know the facts, and learn to: • plan your business better; • support your decisions with facts; and • clarify the demographic confusion using the groupings and frameworks used in this book. Usable Generational Definitions John Burns and Chris Porter redefine the generations by decade born, grouping people by age and life stage. Each generation born in the 1950s and later is 40 to 44 million in size, although the life experiences and foreign-born composition of each vary dramatically. Burns and Porter give each generation a name to reflect the shift in society that they led. Four Big Influencers Four Big Influencers explain why those born in different decades behave so differently, and help explain the big shifts ahead: • New technologies • Changing government Policies • Economic growth • Shifts in societal acceptability Seven Biggest Opportunities Burns and Porter devote a chapter to each of the seven biggest opportunities, forecast the future of each, and provide a framework to shift strategy when unexpected changes occur. 1. Working women 2. Affluent immigrants 3. Workaholic retirees 4. Delayed young adults 5. The Sharing economy 6. Southern growth 7. Urban life moving to the suburbs They support the research with more than 100 easy-to-read color charts and plenty of facts.


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Huge Demographic Shifts Explained and Quantified for Decision Makers Demographics determine the direction of your business. Demographic trends can be overwhelming, misleading, confusing, conflicting, and difficult to predict. Not anymore. John Burns and Chris Porter wrote this book to help make demographic trends easier to understand, quantify, and anticipate. Readers of Huge Demographic Shifts Explained and Quantified for Decision Makers Demographics determine the direction of your business. Demographic trends can be overwhelming, misleading, confusing, conflicting, and difficult to predict. Not anymore. John Burns and Chris Porter wrote this book to help make demographic trends easier to understand, quantify, and anticipate. Readers of this book will have a huge competitive advantage because they will be making decisions with facts, and they will be better able to adjust their strategies when unanticipated events shift prevailing trends. Know the facts, and learn to: • plan your business better; • support your decisions with facts; and • clarify the demographic confusion using the groupings and frameworks used in this book. Usable Generational Definitions John Burns and Chris Porter redefine the generations by decade born, grouping people by age and life stage. Each generation born in the 1950s and later is 40 to 44 million in size, although the life experiences and foreign-born composition of each vary dramatically. Burns and Porter give each generation a name to reflect the shift in society that they led. Four Big Influencers Four Big Influencers explain why those born in different decades behave so differently, and help explain the big shifts ahead: • New technologies • Changing government Policies • Economic growth • Shifts in societal acceptability Seven Biggest Opportunities Burns and Porter devote a chapter to each of the seven biggest opportunities, forecast the future of each, and provide a framework to shift strategy when unexpected changes occur. 1. Working women 2. Affluent immigrants 3. Workaholic retirees 4. Delayed young adults 5. The Sharing economy 6. Southern growth 7. Urban life moving to the suburbs They support the research with more than 100 easy-to-read color charts and plenty of facts.

30 review for Big Shifts Ahead: Demographic Clarity For Business

  1. 4 out of 5

    Chris Esposo

    This book is good for its analysis of American demographics as applied primarily to marketing use cases. If you want an introduction to how demography can partition the consumer base and help you better understand how different demographic subsets consume products or services, this book gives a logical starting point while also doing well to outline the typical approaches of such a marketing use case. The authors outline how demographers partition the population into cohorts of people born in the This book is good for its analysis of American demographics as applied primarily to marketing use cases. If you want an introduction to how demography can partition the consumer base and help you better understand how different demographic subsets consume products or services, this book gives a logical starting point while also doing well to outline the typical approaches of such a marketing use case. The authors outline how demographers partition the population into cohorts of people born in the same decade, with each decade cohort being characterized by a “generational outlook” (technically a decade is only half a generation). The primary justification for this birth year approach is that net-wealth is highly correlated to age, and simple conditional statistics on a person’s net-wealth can be computed at various levels of aggregations of the population to better understand households, individuals and ethnic groups. One can easily imagine how this approach might be an oversimplification, particularly with characterizing an entire cohort of people by one supposedly shared characteristic. For instance, people born in the thirties are said to be “savers”, because they experienced major poverty during the great recession, which increased their propensity to save. Similarly, those born in the sixties are characterized as “equalers”, because their cohort presided over the enactment into law of many gender-equality laws that changed household types and the rate of household formation for decades afterward. Ultimately, this characterization scheme seems to be at its weakest in the last three cohorts of people, those born in the eighties, nineties, and aughts. These three cohorts are called the “sharers”, “connectors” and “globals”, respectively. These labels and descriptions are nothing more than half-baked ideas on what these still young people may think or believe. The authors seek to characterize these people, yet none of them would have reached prime career and working age as of the 2016 publication date. This foretelling of how these younger groups will act stands in stark contrast to the older groups whose characteristics are based on a backward-looking analysis of their life circumstances and life accomplishments. How might such simplified thinking about these still young demographics be off the mark? Let’s take a simple example. It was commonly assumed several years ago that white-supremacy and overt ethnocentric racism was relegated to older age-cohorts in America. But with the recent election and subsequent tragedies involving racially charged shootings perpetrated by some offenders as young as sixteen or seventeen, we now know this previous assumption to be wrong. Perhaps, ultimately, those born in the nineties or naughts will end up being known as the “hermits” or “splinters” because they gravitate back towards older modes of living rather than being the “globals” the authors suggest. All that being said, if you accept the methodology laid out by the authors, which is not without merit, then this book offers you many findings and charts analyzing both the wealth and household behavior life-cycles of the different age-cohorts. There are many hypotheses presented with ultimately little principled study done to substantiate them one way or another, but there are also a number of summary statistics offered to reinforce the authors’ chosen narrative. For this kind of book, though, that is ok, because the authors clearly limit the scope of their analysis in the beginning, and therefore, no one should rightfully expect a formal treatment of demographics that is likely to result in hypotheses with lasting merit. Within the authors’ analysis, there is a super-structure they call the “4-5-6” rule. The four biggest influences on household formation, growth and behavior are said to be the government, the economy, technology, and societal changes. The five life-stage cycles of the individual are also laid out along with the six questions a researcher should ask themselves about each of the cohorts’ consumption patterns and how such patterns are situated in the life-stage of the cohort as well as current socio-technical-economic conditions. For those who would like to dive deeper into the analyses in this book, the authors’ data sets are mostly public, and the data underlying various results such as charts are well-cited enough so that the right practitioner can reproduce the authors’ work and extend it more deeply. Overall, I recommend this book to business practitioners and applied social scientists focused on the domains of business application. It’s well produced, containing a plethora of plots and plausible, albeit it often simplistic, explanations of demographic shifts in consumer behavior.

  2. 4 out of 5

    Rick

    Excellent Read for Real Estate Investors This book dives deep into the underlying causes of consumer demand in the United States, most notably for real estate. There are various trends (for example, urban vs suburban, migration between different MSAs/regions, single family vs multi-family, owning vs renting, etc.) where the authors provide past data, give their forecast, then lay out the evidence to support it. This is can be helpful for any real estate investor who is trying to decide on an ass Excellent Read for Real Estate Investors This book dives deep into the underlying causes of consumer demand in the United States, most notably for real estate. There are various trends (for example, urban vs suburban, migration between different MSAs/regions, single family vs multi-family, owning vs renting, etc.) where the authors provide past data, give their forecast, then lay out the evidence to support it. This is can be helpful for any real estate investor who is trying to decide on an asset class or geographic area on which to focus.

  3. 5 out of 5

    Walter Weston

    Very interesting book. Two things I got out of this. 1. People will go into “Surban” houses- houses outside but close to metro job centers. 2. In a recession, jobs go back to the metro areas. People are focused on good schools, fast commutes and lots of fun activities for family’s. Land banking in the path of progress might be a difficult strategy going forward,

  4. 4 out of 5

    db

    Helpful facts for businessUS residents have moved less often over last 3 decades. Saver, Achievers, Innovators, equalizers, balancer, sharers, Connecters, globals. Surban - urban and suburban - transportation, good schools,

  5. 4 out of 5

    Michelle Hensley

    This book has a good take on demographics which would be unique to the different terms such as baby boomers or millennials. He gave a really good perspective within each decade versus age group. It was helpful to me in understanding the way people are thinking and purchasing and the future trends.

  6. 5 out of 5

    MaryAnn

    I like hearing the stories that the numbers tell and seeing the pictures that make the trends easier to grasp.

  7. 5 out of 5

    Anthony

    Key points: - More people will rent. - Women are going to be more and more influential. - 73% of connectors (1980-1990 generation) will rent apartments in 2025!

  8. 5 out of 5

    Andrew

    I read a lot of this stuff. I hated "Surban" (though I've heard people use it already) and liked the homeownership rate prediction, or at least thought it was defensible. I read a lot of this stuff. I hated "Surban" (though I've heard people use it already) and liked the homeownership rate prediction, or at least thought it was defensible.

  9. 4 out of 5

    Colm McEvilly

  10. 4 out of 5

    Alex Pollack

  11. 5 out of 5

    Luiza

  12. 5 out of 5

    Oscar Mak

  13. 5 out of 5

    Dfspencegmail.com

  14. 5 out of 5

    Mary

  15. 5 out of 5

    Al

  16. 5 out of 5

    Matt Lubbers

  17. 5 out of 5

    Dan

  18. 5 out of 5

    Todd Bunn

  19. 5 out of 5

    Brian

  20. 5 out of 5

    Tom

  21. 5 out of 5

    Nicolas Lam

  22. 5 out of 5

    Justin Hammond

  23. 5 out of 5

    Jason

  24. 5 out of 5

    Eric

  25. 5 out of 5

    Patrick Gleason

  26. 4 out of 5

    Steve Wang

  27. 4 out of 5

    Kerri

  28. 5 out of 5

    Kenneth Tsui

  29. 4 out of 5

    Paul

  30. 4 out of 5

    Nathan Hathorn

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