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Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education

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Higher education faces a looming demographic storm. Decades-long patterns in fertility, migration, and immigration persistently nudge the country toward the Hispanic Southwest. As a result, the Northeast and Midwest--traditional higher education strongholds--expect to lose 5 percent of their college-aged populations between now and the mid-2020s. Furthermore, and in respon Higher education faces a looming demographic storm. Decades-long patterns in fertility, migration, and immigration persistently nudge the country toward the Hispanic Southwest. As a result, the Northeast and Midwest--traditional higher education strongholds--expect to lose 5 percent of their college-aged populations between now and the mid-2020s. Furthermore, and in response to the Great Recession, child-bearing has plummeted. In 2026, when the front edge of this birth dearth reaches college campuses, the number of college-aged students will drop almost 15 percent in just 5 years. In Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education, Nathan D. Grawe has developed the Higher Education Demand Index (HEDI), which relies on data from the 2002 Education Longitudinal Study (ELS) to estimate the probability of college-going using basic demographic variables. Analyzing demand forecasts by institution type and rank while disaggregating by demographic groups, Grawe provides separate forecasts for two-year colleges, elite institutions, and everything in between. The future demand for college attendance, he argues, depends critically on institution type. While many schools face painful contractions, for example, demand for elite schools is expected to grow by more than 15 percent in future years. Essential for administrators and trustees who are responsible for recruitment, admissions, student support, tenure practices, facilities construction, and strategic planning, this book is a practical guide for navigating coming enrollment challenges.


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Higher education faces a looming demographic storm. Decades-long patterns in fertility, migration, and immigration persistently nudge the country toward the Hispanic Southwest. As a result, the Northeast and Midwest--traditional higher education strongholds--expect to lose 5 percent of their college-aged populations between now and the mid-2020s. Furthermore, and in respon Higher education faces a looming demographic storm. Decades-long patterns in fertility, migration, and immigration persistently nudge the country toward the Hispanic Southwest. As a result, the Northeast and Midwest--traditional higher education strongholds--expect to lose 5 percent of their college-aged populations between now and the mid-2020s. Furthermore, and in response to the Great Recession, child-bearing has plummeted. In 2026, when the front edge of this birth dearth reaches college campuses, the number of college-aged students will drop almost 15 percent in just 5 years. In Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education, Nathan D. Grawe has developed the Higher Education Demand Index (HEDI), which relies on data from the 2002 Education Longitudinal Study (ELS) to estimate the probability of college-going using basic demographic variables. Analyzing demand forecasts by institution type and rank while disaggregating by demographic groups, Grawe provides separate forecasts for two-year colleges, elite institutions, and everything in between. The future demand for college attendance, he argues, depends critically on institution type. While many schools face painful contractions, for example, demand for elite schools is expected to grow by more than 15 percent in future years. Essential for administrators and trustees who are responsible for recruitment, admissions, student support, tenure practices, facilities construction, and strategic planning, this book is a practical guide for navigating coming enrollment challenges.

30 review for Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education

  1. 5 out of 5

    Bryan Alexander

    Over the past two weeks I've read a book about the future of American higher ed, and want to recommend it very highly.  It might be the most important book on the subject published this year. The title is Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education , and the author is Nathan D. Grawe, an economics professor at Carleton College.  The subject is what it says on the label: how changing demographics are changing post-secondary education's student population. tl;dr version: Grawe argues that th Over the past two weeks I've read a book about the future of American higher ed, and want to recommend it very highly.  It might be the most important book on the subject published this year. The title is Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education , and the author is Nathan D. Grawe, an economics professor at Carleton College.  The subject is what it says on the label: how changing demographics are changing post-secondary education's student population. tl;dr version: Grawe argues that the American traditional-age undergraduate population is plateauing for now, but will plummet in about a decade with serious results for higher education. Let me break this down. The center of the book is a model called the Higher Education Demand Index, or HEDI.   HEDI data and materials are available on the web.  Most of the book consists of Grawe feeding different data into HEDI and exploring the results (see 27ff for the main explanation). The crucial demographic takeaway here is the unfolding birth dearth, a decline over time in the overall number of children per couple (3).  Grawe works this out carefully, showing it to have multiple causes, including the Great Recession, which "eliminated" births (6), the shape of migration into the United States, and the movement of populations between states (9-11).  The dearth will unfold unevenly across the United States.  The midwest and northeast will continue to lose numbers of younger people, while "nearly all of the anticipated growth [such as it is] will be found west of the Mississippi River" (3).  "[T]he country's population is tilting toward the Southwest in general and the Hispanic Southwest in particular." (6) height="298" width="400> Figure 1.5 Forecasted growth in high school graduates, 2012 to 2032 In the figure about note what the book refers to as "a corridor running just west of the Mississippi River from Minnesota to Texas [that] anticipates widespread, expansive growth." (78) . Expect admissions offices to aggressively recruit there! However, that regional and ethnic growth is too small to offset declines elsewhere (16-17).  Overall, the population of 18 years olds will dwindle, as "beginning in the mid-2020s many colleges will enter an extended period of shrinking recruitment pools." (14)  "Total numbers of students are headed toward a cliff." (19; emphasis mine) [B]oth population and college-going students are expected to hold steady through the early 2020s before a brief and modest 5 percent increase precedes a precipitous reduction on 15 percent or more. (45) Elsewhere the author described this as "declining demand for higher education as a whole". This short book is crammed with details, so let me extract just a few for this review. Ethnicity: while Hispanic populations rise and lead to greater numbers of graduates, white numbers decline.  In addition, Grawe finds Asian high school graduate numbers rising more than any other population's, while the black graduate population actually shrinks (17, 54, 119). Figure 1.6 Forecasted growth in public high school graduates by race/ethnicity 2012 to 2032 Who goes to college?  Grawe focuses on several factors: "family income, race/ethnicity, and parent education." (23) . He also includes "an interaction between sex/ethnicity [and] census division and urban/nonurban location of high school" (29). Who won't go to college?  Grawe finds that first-generation student populations are not likely to grow.  Instead, parents with college education will remain the most eager to send their children to campus, and are presenting "gaining in their population share" (55; 51-3; 83). While first-generation students make up a clear majority (60 percent) or postsecondary students today, by 2029 such students will comprise just 53 percent of the whole, and more than 25 percent of college students will hail from home with two bachelors degrees. (55) Indeed, Grawe suggests that the most visible change in the student population will be increased parental education (84). What happens to colleges and universities?  Demographics does a fine job of distinguishing between different sectors of American higher education, drawing out differences among community colleges, four-year institutions, and the elites.  The findings here are fascinating, as Grawe finds students with parental higher ed degrees increasing in community colleges (65), Asian-American students the major growth population for baccalaureate institutions (82-3), and elite universities enjoying a significant advantage over everyone else once the birth dearth really hits, although students attending the latter will be less likely to come from cities, counterintuitively (81; 71). Grawe also sees the number of full-pay students rising, up to 25% more than today by 2025, especially in families from the south and west (93, 94, 95).  Based on the American model of using steep discount rates whereby full pay students subsidize the rest, "regional and national institutions will find a bit of relief in their students' ability to pay." (95)  One possible strategic result: [r]ising numbers of full-pay students may cushion the blow of falling overall demand among regional colleges and universities." (97) How about instructors?  Using HEDI figures Grawe projects a loss of "roughly 25,000 faculty positions." As a result, "we might anticipate a steady continuation of the movement away from tenure."(57) . Queen sacrifices seem likely (100). One extra detail: Grawe sees Asian-American student numbers rising sharply in distinction to many others, which might lead some elite institutions to quotas against them.  Well, those are my words.  The text actually reads "elite schools... may opt to pass on some highly attractive Asian American students for the sake of a more representative student body." (120) . My bet: expect more lawsuits as a result (Grawe quietly noted this in an interview). Things that won't help campuses Grawe doesn't see the digital world having much of an impact on these numbers, especially given the MOOC bubble's bursting, although they could help attract adult learners in a small way (102-3; 109).  He also thinks aggressively recruiting adult learners won't have much of an impact (109). Caveats: I'm impressed at how frequently Grawe cautions us not to take his forecasts as graven truth.  He repeatedly notes ways the future can diverge from HEDI's outputs, such as noting that which high school grads actually go to college isn't 100% driven by the total number of students (28, 33-6).  The author also conducts a rare exercise, testing to see how HEDI would have predicted recent years' data, had it been created and run in the past (37-43).  He also asks readers not to exaggerate his findings (69), and reminds us that some policy changes backed up by popular support could change things up to a degree (133). I have many questions for the author, and will hopefully get to ask him when he's a guest on the Future Trends Forum (March 15th, 2-3 pm EST), such as: How will the Trump presidency impact immigration as a factor in international student demand? Could several factors drive online learning to make a significant difference: decreasing costs; greater fluency among the population? What impact would an economic downturn have on these numbers? What would it take for a campus to successfully combine online learning and adult student recruitment to offset the demographic challenge? Would closer relationships between campuses and high schools help increase the proportion of students who actually make it to college? If recruitment becomes a problem, will technology appears as one solution for boosting retention? ...and if I write any more I'll start approaching this short book's word count.  Let me close by recommending Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education to anyone interested in American higher education. (also posted on my blog

  2. 5 out of 5

    Douglas Wilson

    Competently done, but a bit dull.

  3. 4 out of 5

    Marks54

    This book was surprisingly interesting and informative. The author is an economist and academic administrator at Carleton College (an elite 4 year college in Northfield Minnesota). Grawe reports on his studies of the relationship of demographic trends and the “demand” for higher education. What is the punchline? Grawe starts with some well chronicled trends and projections on US demographic data that predict a “birth dearth” towards the end of the 2020s. The prediction is that there will be a sub This book was surprisingly interesting and informative. The author is an economist and academic administrator at Carleton College (an elite 4 year college in Northfield Minnesota). Grawe reports on his studies of the relationship of demographic trends and the “demand” for higher education. What is the punchline? Grawe starts with some well chronicled trends and projections on US demographic data that predict a “birth dearth” towards the end of the 2020s. The prediction is that there will be a substantial reduction in the number of students attending institutions of higher education and this will requires much pain, consolidation of programs, reductions in both administrative and academic teaching staff, and a generally leaner and meaner time for colleges and universities in the US. Sounds bad, right? Some may even remember the 1970s and 1980s once the baby boomers moved through. Yikes! This is the common refrain, accompanied by hand wringing and the gnashing of teeth. Professor Grawe comes to the rescue here, but noting that macro demographic trends to not translate into real differences in the demand for post-secondary education, since not everybody ever attended college and since education markets as such are almost certainly geographically delimited with the exception of the very top elite schools and their programs. So irrespective of what demographics suggest, the implication for the higher education industry and for particular programs is unclear in the extreme. The key intuition is that not all colleges/universities are the same and not all subsets of potential and actual college students are the same. He combines some juicy data sets and develops a a regression model (probit I think) and proceeds to analyze the data looking at how different regions of the country vary in their demographic futures and how different types of institutions are subject to demographic changes in widely varying degrees. Oh, yes, and there are different demographic sets of students as well, such that they will differ in the willingness, ability, and likelihood of attending various types of institutions. There is too much going on to go over the model and its results in any detail. The econometrics appear to be capably done, the study is well organized, and Professor Grawe is thoughtful. Don’t expect poetry, however, since this is a summary of an economics study program. Even so, this is much more thoughtful the garden variety reports common in publication for administrators. Where does he end up? First, the demographic trends are real. Second, how real depends on where you are located and what type of school (with what resources) you are. Third, the top schools will do fine and even likely prosper. The less top schools will have to struggle and may face declines. Two year institutions (junior colleges) will be tightly tied to demographic winds of change. There is hope but it will take some thinking and more than a little strategy. The punchline of the book is plausible and even rings true. The writing is well done and should communicate well with decision makers and their support staff. The writing on strategy is fine but could have been better developed. It may be that books of this sort often never have much strategy content, but I appreciate the effort. The implications for junior colleges/community colleges could have been pushed more in my opinion, especially in linkages to four year colleges and universities. Junior college graduates are valued by universities because completing a short program is arguably a good marker of the abilities and personal discipline (grit) needed to complete BAs and BSs. More on graduation rates would also have helped. Schools often assume a six year rate rather than a four year rate and getting that rate down is a difficult problem. Overall, this is an unusually good book and well worth reading.

  4. 4 out of 5

    Chris Esposo

    This is an excellent and timely text on the nature of America’s higher-education system, specifically, looking at how it may be sustained as demographic growth changes both in terms of rate and spatial distribution. The text was written before the 2018-current (circa mid-2021) US-China trade war (and broader changes in US sentiment from immigration outside of the West in general), which has only exacerbated the potential issues for America’s higher education system, who’s growth and capacity ar This is an excellent and timely text on the nature of America’s higher-education system, specifically, looking at how it may be sustained as demographic growth changes both in terms of rate and spatial distribution. The text was written before the 2018-current (circa mid-2021) US-China trade war (and broader changes in US sentiment from immigration outside of the West in general), which has only exacerbated the potential issues for America’s higher education system, who’s growth and capacity are highly dependent on foreign students enrolling (and paying fullrate on the most part) and providing critical specialized labor for it’s labs and research organizations. The text is primarily a formal study of the subject matter, though there are some discussions with policy, the main theme of the text is to understand how changes in demographics within the United States will likely impact the set of institutes of higher education. Though it is somewhat technical, it does not exceed the technical apparatus of basic social science research (e.g. nothing more than a logistic regression). The data, the Education Longitudinal Study (ELS) is used to first build an individual-level prediction model that represents the conditional mean of the ‘average’ (or characteristic) individual living in a particular geography, with a particular socio-demographic combination. With this model for that estimator, the researchers proposed to estimate the demand for college for those characteristic demographic types by simply multiplying the estimated probability with the forecasted number of college-enrolling teens/young-adults in that geography. They then variate these estimations to construct the estimated demand function, which is referred to as the Higher Education Demand Index (HEDI). With this apparatus the authors can make some interesting forecasts on the varying demand of higher education in the United States upto the year 2030. Much of these forecasts are consistent with other studies showing that higher education will undergo a considerable consolidation period, where much of the 4000+ institutions will likely face reduction in capacity or outright failure. In certain areas, this is due to the decline in key demographics most likely to attend a post-secondary school education. Still many others will face an decreased demand for their services as more prestigious national universities become more attractive to an increasing number of students seeking quality and value (assuming they do not increase the price of their service to match the most elite tier universities, an assumption the author discusses in some detail). The book is very interesting, and should be of interest to anyone concerned with US competitiveness in increasingly human-capital intensive industries, as well as the maintenance of well-being within the domestic market for US residents who themselves must increasingly invest in education to achieve a better standard of living. It is also a good ‘easy’ example of how social / policy research should be constructed in a more rigorous manner. Recommended.

  5. 5 out of 5

    Andrew

    Colleges and universities have already been undergoing huge shifts with the advent of online education and slumping enrollments. The next decade will bring even greater change. With a sophisticated forecasting model, Nathan Grawe offers projections (and a few strategies) that college administrators and others would be wise to consider. Because of significantly lower birth rates following the Great Recession, the graduating high school classes beginning in 2026 (born 2008 and after) will decline s Colleges and universities have already been undergoing huge shifts with the advent of online education and slumping enrollments. The next decade will bring even greater change. With a sophisticated forecasting model, Nathan Grawe offers projections (and a few strategies) that college administrators and others would be wise to consider. Because of significantly lower birth rates following the Great Recession, the graduating high school classes beginning in 2026 (born 2008 and after) will decline significantly. As a result of losing 450,000 students in the late 2020s, about 25,000 faculty positions will also be lost by the end of the next decade (pp. 56-57). The picture, according to Grawe’s nuanced projections, is both better and worse than it seems. Some distinctions come when broken down by region and by ethnicity. The Northeast and Midwest will suffer far more than other regions. The West will generally do better. Immigration patterns factor into these changes as well. Some (not all) losses will also be offset because there will be more families with at least one parent having earned a college degree, making it more likely for their children to attend. Another offset—with couples delaying parenthood, older parents are often in a better financial position to send children to college. My state of Illinois, however, suffers losses almost no matter how the data is sliced and diced by Grawe’s model. As might be expected, elite institutions will not suffer at all. Two-year schools will suffer the most, partially because of competition from four-year institutions for the smaller pool of students. Nationwide, the ethnic gap will also increase, but mostly because Asian American students will be attending at an even higher rate than their already high rate. Other rates will tend to hold. On top of all this, economists project a need for an even more educated workforce which current trends will not support. The ripple effect on the economy could therefore be felt for decades. Many institutions have responded with the high-tuition/high-aid pricing models. But some research shows that lowering the tuition actually gains more students than raising aid levels. Grawe considers a few other strategies as well as how public policy initiatives might change the outcome his model projects. The book is not written at a popular level, and the graphs and charts need study to appreciate. But here and in the supplemental material found on the web ( here) Grawe gives much more information and perspective about the substantial changes ahead for this important sector of society.

  6. 5 out of 5

    Carolyn Kost

    Clayton Christensen famously predicted that 50% of colleges would close in a decade. As if on cue, six New England colleges closed in three years. And yet, in view of the constant construction on campuses across the country, one wonders whether administrators are blithely unaware of and unconcerned about the implications of the looming demographic crisis occasioned by the 13% drop in the birth rate during the Great Recession of 2008, which never recovered. Carleton College social scientist Natha Clayton Christensen famously predicted that 50% of colleges would close in a decade. As if on cue, six New England colleges closed in three years. And yet, in view of the constant construction on campuses across the country, one wonders whether administrators are blithely unaware of and unconcerned about the implications of the looming demographic crisis occasioned by the 13% drop in the birth rate during the Great Recession of 2008, which never recovered. Carleton College social scientist Nathan Grawe reveals this as only part of the story and proceeds to fill us in using the Higher Education Demand Index (HEDI), which "uses data from the Education Longitudinal Study (ELS) to estimate the probability of college-going, conditional on basic demographic variables: sex, race/ethnicity, parent education, geographic location, family income, family composition, and nativity." In summary, regional and two-year colleges are likely to see a "precipitous reduction of 15% or more from 2025 until 2029" (45). Previous effective tactics, like attracting more women and older adults are tapped out and won't save colleges as they did in the past. The demand for elite universities, in contrast, is likely to increase 13% due to the increasing number of Asian Americans and children with BA holding parents. Overall demand will decrease most in the Northeast and all growth will occur west of the Mississippi. My frustrations with this book are unlikely to affect professional demographers. For the sake of clarity regarding the regions, keep the US Census map of Regions and Divisions handy. Further, I was baffled several times to find that the rates of decline or increase cited were relative to x, when y was just discussed. It was too easy to confuse the values. Finally, the author repeatedly made a dire pronouncement, walked it back slightly referring to a different group or region, and followed it with another. One of the many important though disheartening takeaways of the book is that Grawe effectively persuades us not to be sanguine regarding the effectiveness of public policy on the rate of college attendance on enrollment gaps across income and race and ethnicity. The Chronicle of Higher Education continually reveals case after case that the extraordinary funds spent by federal, state, and local entities and universities have yielded small gains. Grawe is not surprised since demographic currents are too strong to swim against. But more importantly, college is simply not for everyone. To declare that everyone must attend college is to undervalue individual gifts and the ways of finding meaning and constructing meaningful purposeful life unrelated to academics. This is an important book and should be read by educators at every level.

  7. 5 out of 5

    Deborah Quazzo

    You can’t judge a book by its cover! This seemingly boring title is actually a fascinating study of the changing demographics of the US and what it means for the future of higher education. I think he could have pushed harder on some things that could change to alter outcomes but it was fascinating.

  8. 5 out of 5

    Rachel

    As an admissions administrator this book was fascinating. Taking demographics at the national level and combining it with factors that indicate likelihood of college attendance allows for a more nuanced predictive enrollment model. I am planning to share this widely with stakeholders on my campus.

  9. 4 out of 5

    Tej Dhawan

    The news is filled with stories predicting higher education’s demise. Whether derived from falling enrollments around the country, high cost of tuition to attend college, the irrelevance(!?) of a college degree to a lifetime of employment, or simply political rhetoric, higher-ed is under persistent criticism. Rhetoric aside, what does data say about the state of higher ed? I was introduced to the book, Demographics and the demand for higher education, in April and read it then as a reference. So The news is filled with stories predicting higher education’s demise. Whether derived from falling enrollments around the country, high cost of tuition to attend college, the irrelevance(!?) of a college degree to a lifetime of employment, or simply political rhetoric, higher-ed is under persistent criticism. Rhetoric aside, what does data say about the state of higher ed? I was introduced to the book, Demographics and the demand for higher education, in April and read it then as a reference. Something new compelled me to read it with a data perspective and it revealed a few interesting thoughts. Whatever faces a college today isn’t simply a function of the college admissions office or the school guidance counselors. The student who matriculates into a freshman class is a product of at least 18-years of interactions. The author takes us through a bit of history and (quite) a bit of data. Here are the highlights. The author studies the factors impacting demand for higher education. Parents’ education levels directly correlate with what their children pursue in college – a 2-year, a 4-year or no-degree. Migration patterns and parent ethnicity seem to impact the elasticity of demand in certain regions, but, the migration at a macro level seems like a constant. The latter third of the book shifts toward attitudes toward paying for college, how individual institutions will redefine themselves, and the effects of policy on higher ed. These latter variables could upend the entire demographic impact and shift the face of higher education across America. You must begin with the demographics of the markets first to study why higher-ed is undergoing a seismic shift, and there is no homogeneous solution to the shift. Each institution will have to redefine itself within its shifting market. Change is constant, even in the glacial movement of academia! If you want to study this in further detail, start by grabbing the book from the link in the first paragraph. Source data are available at the author’s page at https://people.carleton.edu/~ngrawe/H....

  10. 5 out of 5

    McKenzie

    I read many articles this year for work that referenced Nathan Grawe's Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education, and decided to read for myself the research upon which the industry is relying in trying to understand how the coming "birth dearth" will impact enrollment at various types of higher education institutions. Grawe lays out the demographic facts before explaining his forecasting tool that uses past information to predict where future students will be likely to enroll in the comi I read many articles this year for work that referenced Nathan Grawe's Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education, and decided to read for myself the research upon which the industry is relying in trying to understand how the coming "birth dearth" will impact enrollment at various types of higher education institutions. Grawe lays out the demographic facts before explaining his forecasting tool that uses past information to predict where future students will be likely to enroll in the coming decade. His analysis is broken into 2-year schools, lower-ranked regional schools, mid-ranked national schools, and high-ranked elite schools, and he considers each type of institution in terms of overall population, race/ethnicity of future students, parental educational level, and household income. This approach paints a clear picture of how all institutions will be facing different challenges depending on their typical student population, and the importance of reconsidering recruitment and tuition/financial aid structure in the coming years. I definitely recommend this book for any of my higher education peers, though not necessarily for a lay audience. There are plenty of news articles following the enrollment blip in fall 2019 that explain what will be coming down the pipeline in 2026 (18 years after the 2008 financial crisis) and beyond, but this book provides a deeper dive for anyone interested.

  11. 5 out of 5

    Jimmie Bruce

    For those of us that have been in the trenches of higher education institutions for the last several years, we know that enrollment declines are a concern. On top of a steady decline in college enrollment during the 2010’s, the COVID pandemic exacerbated the problem. In the book, Grawe illustrates the challenges institutions will have in the 2020’s. Birth rates in the U.S. fell dramatically after the 2007-8 economic crash and have continued a steady decline since. If these enrollment rates conti For those of us that have been in the trenches of higher education institutions for the last several years, we know that enrollment declines are a concern. On top of a steady decline in college enrollment during the 2010’s, the COVID pandemic exacerbated the problem. In the book, Grawe illustrates the challenges institutions will have in the 2020’s. Birth rates in the U.S. fell dramatically after the 2007-8 economic crash and have continued a steady decline since. If these enrollment rates continue to decrease proportionally, then the declining rate of students enrolled at U.S. colleges and universities may plunge when this generation reaches high school-leaving age. Grawe has developed the Higher Education Demand Index to examine this issue. As a life-long community college advocate, my concern is the data he presents around two-year college enrollment. To say it is troubling would be an understatement. It presents unique challenges for sure but also opportunities for community colleges to continue innovating and developing in-demand programs. Regardless of how much emphasis you want to put on the data presented in Grawe’s book, it is an important read and shouldn’t be ignored.

  12. 4 out of 5

    Liam

    "One key factor in this revised view is the previously noted correlation between parent education and college attendance. Rising educational attainment in the recent past means greater parental educational attainment in the present and future, which, in turn, will likely increase college-going probabilities over time." (25) "[T]he share of elite students from full-pay backgrounds is not expected to change. By contrast, the share of such students at regional and national four-year schools is expec "One key factor in this revised view is the previously noted correlation between parent education and college attendance. Rising educational attainment in the recent past means greater parental educational attainment in the present and future, which, in turn, will likely increase college-going probabilities over time." (25) "[T]he share of elite students from full-pay backgrounds is not expected to change. By contrast, the share of such students at regional and national four-year schools is expected to rise between three and five percentage points in coming years. So, in the midst of challenging enrollment declines, regional and national institutions will find a bit of relief in their students' abilities to pay." (95)

  13. 4 out of 5

    Dimitrios

    4.5 Explores the demographic issues, with a focus on the "birth dearth," that is presenting and will continue to present existential challenges to higher education institutions. And ways institutions addressing and asproaches to survive these challenges. It is a very large, convoluted, and complex problem that I am only barely begin to grasp and understand. 4.5 Explores the demographic issues, with a focus on the "birth dearth," that is presenting and will continue to present existential challenges to higher education institutions. And ways institutions addressing and asproaches to survive these challenges. It is a very large, convoluted, and complex problem that I am only barely begin to grasp and understand.

  14. 4 out of 5

    Bill Sweeney

    Good, thought-provoking book about some fundamental demographic changes soon to hit higher education. A bit repetitive, as all books like this tend to be. However, the author makes some good points that should be taken seriously moving forward. Worth reading.

  15. 5 out of 5

    Grant De Roo

    An important read for anyone in higher education, particularly those who are responsible for recruiting and enrolling new students. The sooner you read this, the sooner you can plan ahead for demographic changes in higher ed in the 2020s and what they may mean for your institution.

  16. 4 out of 5

    Patricia

    Very technical analysis on admissions trends in higher education. For me, it provides excellent content for my work as a university trustee.

  17. 4 out of 5

    Kevin Stilley

    A very important book for college administrators.

  18. 5 out of 5

    Emily

    Interesting information, but really repetitive.

  19. 5 out of 5

    Laura

    If you work in higher education in the USA, it's a must read. If you work in higher education in the USA, it's a must read.

  20. 4 out of 5

    Ji Hea Kim

    Good walkthrough; rather dry read.

  21. 5 out of 5

    Amy Hietapelto

    Solid. Lots of statistics. Thought-provoking read for administrators in academia, as well as for faculty and staff.

  22. 4 out of 5

    Paul Peterson

    This book was definitely an eye opener for my perspective!

  23. 4 out of 5

    Garrett Trott

  24. 4 out of 5

    Steve

  25. 4 out of 5

    Michael

  26. 5 out of 5

    Pam

  27. 5 out of 5

    Frank

  28. 5 out of 5

    Jeremy

  29. 5 out of 5

    Paul

  30. 4 out of 5

    Shellie Gazdik

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